Farmers welcome good rains. But geopolitical climate still wreaking havoc

Above-average April rainfall is good news for grain and cereal producers in the Western Cape, Agri Western Cape reports

However, the ongoing Middle East conflict continues to apply huge cost pressure, with fuel and fertilizer making up roughly 60% of input costs.    

“The recent rains are good signs for grain and cereal producers in the province,” according to Agri Western Cape economist Adriaan Lambrechts. “Given the Crop Estimates Committee' report on intentions to plant (released on the 23rd of April), overall winter cereal plantings are stable. Wheat plantings are still expected to be lower than last year, but there are increases in canola, barley and oats plantings.”

“The rain is a good start to the season, but producers must be aware that climate trends suggest that the south-west and southern coastline of the country are expected to receive below-average rainfall during winter. Despite this, data shows that most of the province had above-average rainfall in April,” Lambrechts says.

Farmers continue to face a significant ‘cost-price squeeze’ as a direct result of the Middle East crisis. “With diesel prices now above R30 a litre and fertiliser prices increasing anywhere from 15% to 50% compared to last year, it is evident that producers are under cost-pressure. The cost increases, however, do not translate into the wheat prices, which are on the same level they were in 2024,” Lambrechts says.