Mounting Fuel Pain Forces Freight Choices
October 07, 2026
The escalating fuel crisis highlights the economy's current overdependence on road freight and liquid fuels, and the need to fix freight rail and explore alternatives such as battery-electric vehicles.
That's the view of the Cape Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Road Freight Association (RFA), which this week issued stark warnings following record fuel price increases.
With wholesale 50ppm diesel increasing to over R32.00 per litre coastal and R33.20 inland, commercial transport and agricultural supply chains face an immediate cost shock that will ripple across key economic sectors. There are also indications that the price may even rise further before the end of the year.
Road Freight Association CEO Gavin Kelly says the price increase could nudge transporters to make operational changes: “It is safe to say that any transporter will look at fuel consumption (the only "real" method to cut fuel costs), and this could result in various options being considered: different types of vehicles used, different operating hours (eg less congestion), different routes, different loading and offloading scheduling, driver behaviour, and a move to battery electric vehicles."
Highlighting the immediate strain on local exporters, Terry Gale, Chairperson of the Cape Chamber’s Product Business Environment Portfolio Committee, says the increase comes at a critical operational window:
"As the deciduous fruit season starts within the next two months and the first grape exports begin within weeks, farmers face immense difficulty calculating cost-to-market in an ever-changing landscape."
"In the current economic context, the increase in diesel prices will have a huge, negative impact on industry and will ultimately affect all our pockets as the majority of goods are moved by road in South Africa. Transporters are forced to add fuel surcharges that can add an additional 50% or more to base tariffs, fluctuating monthly."
"South Africa currently has no active refineries to absorb these cost increases, leaving us exposed to international supply shocks despite sourcing fuel from non-Middle Eastern markets."
Gale says these supply chain pressures reinforce why the Department of Transport is advocating for a return to rail infrastructure to connect key industrial nodes and freight corridors—including Durban, Ngqura, and Cape Town—directly to Gauteng.
Cape Chamber CEO John Lawson says the fuel pain could refocus attention on the urgent need to find road freight solutions: “Because rail is not working, it means we have more trucks on the road than we need to have to transport goods. The increased fuel cost means that all our input costs will increase, and it also adds a cost in terms of road maintenance.”
“What this all means, however, is that we need to focus on solutions. Rather than wait for the next increase, we need to become more resilient and less dependent on particularly diesel.”
Kelly says pressure on supply chains is likely to intensify: "Unfortunately, it is difficult to completely rule out further fuel price increases – already there are indicators that South Africa is heading towards further fuel price increases in November, should the tensions in the Middle East not be resolved. The ongoing geopolitical tension and the surge in risk, coupled with the supply and demand factor, adaptability will continue to be vital for South Africa’s freight sector."
"Transport companies’ strategies for navigating this increasingly unstable operating environment will continue to be shaped by limiting fuel use, enhancing operational efficiency, and preparing for unpredictability. "
"One thing is certain: In a country that is dependent on road freight, such as South Africa, every adjustment in the price of diesel has consequences extending past the petrol pump, it goes deep into the transport systems that keep the country running."
Kelly notes how transporters are attempting to mitigate costs through operational adjustments. He says the freight sector also holds serious concerns regarding illicit fuel blending and dirty diesel entering commercial supply chains to undercut legitimate operators.
Addressing the broader macroeconomic consequences, Dr Adrian Strydom, Executive Director of the South African Oil & Gas Alliance (SAOGA) and Cape Chamber Council member, stresses the impact on low-income households and domestic energy security:
"Energy security is an important issue for South Africa, as an escalation in the fuel price will have a far-reaching effect on our economy. Transportation and manufacturing costs are particularly vulnerable, and everyone will feel the pinch."
"A sharp rise in fuel costs hits the poorest of the poor hardest through higher food prices and potential job losses. This underscores why South Africa must explore local oil and gas resources rather than spending billions annually on foreign imports while missing out on domestic employment creation," Strydom says.
Business stakeholders have urged government to consider administrative mechanisms to cushion economic sectors from international price shocks while accelerating rail and energy infrastructure reforms to maintain national supply chain viability